CricViz’s Expected Average metric is given extensive coverage by Tim Wigmore in this week’s Cricket Nerd newsletter in The Telegraph
In Tim Wigmore’s weekly newsletter, the primary focus was on CricViz’s unique Expected Average metric, explaining how it works, providing real world examples of its usage and outlining limitations of the metric and how it is likely to develop in the future.
Wigmore explained the aim of the metric as ‘to provide a truer answer to the question of how a player performed rather than merely what the score says’, going on to say that, ‘[t]he idea is to produce a more precise measure of a bowler’s performance than a plain average’.
In order to demonstrate how Expected Average works, Wigmore used the performance of James Anderson during the summer of 2020. For the first three Tests of the summer, Anderson’s Expected Average was well below his actual average.
But, in what Wigmore describes as a ‘classic example of regression to the mean’, Anderson took ten wickets in the last two Tests of England’s summer.
Wigmore also used the example of England’s spinners in their recent tour to Sri Lanka. Despite Bess outperforming Leach across the two Tests, the Expected numbers for the two bowlers suggest that Leach should in fact be considered England’s primary spinner.